Space-time permutation model applied to the past outbreak data of lumpy skin disease in the Balkan Peninsula from August 2015 to July 2017

Main Article Content

Zharko Stojmanovski


Introduction. In August 2015, lumpy skin disease (LSD) was notified for the first time in mainland European Union when it was observed in cattle in Greece. From August 2015 to July 2017, 1,757 outbreaks were reported in cattle in Greece, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, and Montenegro.
Materials and Methods. The Kulldorff space-time permutation scan statistic contained in the software package SaTScan v 9.4.4 was used to analyse the epizootic past outbreak data and describe the spread of the disease in the 24 months after the first notification.
Results and Conclusions. Seventy-six space-time disease clusters (62 significant and 14 non-significant) were identified. In 2015, 10 clusters with a monthly peak in October (n=5, 50%) were identified, in 2016, the most (n=57) clusters were detected with monthly peak in July (n=15, 26.3%), and up to July 2017, nine clusters with a monthly peak in May (n=3, 3.3%) were determined. Possible high-risk areas were identified using the presented methodology, and so this technique could guide national veterinary authorities to formulate strategies for mitigating the spread of LSD, allocating resources and for formulating epidemiological preparedness plans in neighbouring, LSD-negative, countries.


Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
Stojmanovski, Z. (2018). Space-time permutation model applied to the past outbreak data of lumpy skin disease in the Balkan Peninsula from August 2015 to July 2017. Veterinarski Glasnik, 72(1), 44–55.
Short communication


Abdelgawad S.E.-T. 2017. Establishing econometric modeling equations for lumpy skin disease outbreaks in the Nile Delta of Egypt under current climate conditions. World Academy of Science Engineering and Technology. International Journal of Animal and Veterinary Science, 11:3

Animal Disease Information Summaries: OIE - World Organisation for Animal Health [WWW Document], not dated. URL (accessed 10.13.17).

Animal Health - Regulatory Committee - presentations - Food Safety - European Commission [WWW Document], not dated. Food Saf. URL /food/animals/health/regulatory_committee/presentations_en (accessed 10.10.17).

Banu S., Hu W., Hurst C., Guo Y., Islam M. Z., Tong S. 2012. Space-time clusters of dengue fever in Bangladesh: Space-time clusters of dengue fever. Tropical Medicine and International Health, 17:1086-1091.

DIVA-GIS | free, simple & effective [WWW Document], not dated. URL (accessed 10.6.17).

EMPRES-i - Global Animal Disease Information System [WWW Document], not dated. (accessed 10.15.17).

European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). 2016. Lumpy skin disease: vaccination is most effective control method | European Food Safety Authority [WWW Document], 9 August 2016. URL (accessed 10.11.17).

European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), 2017. Lumpy skin disease: I. Data collection and analysis. EFSA Journal, 15.

Iglesias I., Perez A. M., De la Torre A., Muñoz M. J., Martínez M., Sánchez-Vizcaíno J. M. 2010. Identifying areas for infectious animal disease surveillance in the absence of population data: Highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild bird populations of Europe. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 96:1-8.

Kulldorff M. 2006. SaTScanTM User Guide. Boston.

Mercier A., Arsevska E., Bournez L., Bronner A., Calavas D., Cauchard J., Falala S., Caufour P., Tisseuil C., Lefrançois T., Lancelot R. 2017. Spread rate of lumpy skin disease in the Balkans, 2015-2016. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 65(1):240-243.

SaTScan - Software for the spatial, temporal, and space-time scan statistics [WWW Document], not dated. URL (accessed 10.15.17).

Turan N., Yilmaz A., Takelioglu B. K., Yilmaz H. 2017. Lumpy skin Disease: Global and Turkish perspectives. Approaches in Poultry, Dairy & Veterinary Science, 1(1). APDV.000504.2017.

Welcome to the QGIS project! [WWW Document], not dated. URL (accessed 10.6.17)